{"id":1636,"date":"2021-11-10T11:49:07","date_gmt":"2021-11-10T03:49:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bshare.io\/?p=1636"},"modified":"2022-08-16T14:58:39","modified_gmt":"2022-08-16T06:58:39","slug":"btc_bull_s2f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bshare.io\/en\/trend\/btc_bull_s2f\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u725b\u5e02\u771f\u7684\u53ef\u4ee5\u5230 10 \u842c\u7f8e\uff1f\u5f9e PlanB \u7684 S2F\/S2FX(Stock-to-flow) \u6a21\u578b\u4f86\u770b\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u725b\u5e02\u7684\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\uff01"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u5faa\u74b0 VS \u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u5e02\u5834\u5faa\u74b0\u6a21\u5f0f\u53ca\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u50f9\u683c\u9810\u6e2c\u6a21\u578bS2F\uff0fS2FX<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7121\u8ad6\u662f\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u3001\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\u8b8a\u5316\u3001\u8cfc\u8cb7\u529b\u5e73\u50f9\u6216\u662f\u6709\u540d\u7684\u5927\u9ea5\u514b\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u6307\u6a19\u540d\u8a5e\u90fd\u53cd\u6620\u8457\u4e00\u500b\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u7684\u7576\u524d\u7684\u666f\u6c23\u72c0\u6cc1\uff1b\u5373\u4fbf\u4e0d\u662f\u9577\u5e74\u95dc\u6ce8\u8ca1\u91d1\u6216\u7d93\u8cbf\u8b70\u984c\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u61c9\u8a72\u4e5f\u90fd\u80fd\u5728\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u660e\u986f\u611f\u53d7\u5230\u666f\u6c23\u856d\u689d\u548c\u666f\u6c23\u7e41\u69ae\u6642\u7684\u986f\u8457\u5dee\u7570\uff1b\u66f4\u4e0d\u7528\u8aaa\u662f\u7cbe\u6253\u7d30\u7b97\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u5011\uff0c\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\u5c0d\u8ca1\u5bcc\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u6298\u50f9\u7d55\u5c0d\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u5ffd\u8996\u7684\u3002\u6bcf\u4e00\u500b\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\uff08\u4e43\u81f3\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\uff09\u6703\u6709\u666f\u6c23\u5faa\u74b0\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u4e5f\u6703\u6709\u666f\u6c23\u5faa\u74b0\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u52a0\u5bc6\u8ca8\u5e63\u5e02\u5834\u5462\uff1f\u662f\u5426\u4e5f\u4f9d\u5faa\u8457\u67d0\u4e00\u7a2e\u5faa\u74b0\u7684\u898f\u5f8b\uff0c\u5177\u9ad4\u53c8\u662f\u600e\u9ebc\u6a23\u7684\u5462\uff1f\u672c\u6587\u5c07\u4ecb\u7d39\u63a8\u52d5\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u5faa\u74b0\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u5fc3\u7406\u4ee5\u53ca\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u7684\u5927\u62b5\u5faa\u74b0\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u5e6b\u52a9\u5c0d\u52a0\u5bc6\u8ca8\u5e63\u5e02\u5834\u6709\u8208\u8da3\u7684\u8b80\u8005\u53ca\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\uff0c\u66f4\u52a0\u4e86\u89e3\u52a0\u5bc6\u8ca8\u5e63\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u9762\u8c8c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/lO49UMOl16oQ_-aVUyOo7TgZA5XLNDqZCFGPeqkWAlbuQ_IlhfenMdWzNXomC94GAsKrxgoT3ukQCbJ7BhoknQgr3nCf8zvxULL_FmlDfZSvUMZuSYGQL9Fe3smDMJg2ovMMac_s\" alt=\"\" width=\"959\" height=\"539\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u666f\u6c23\u70ba\u751a\u9ebc\u6703\u5faa\u74b0\uff1f<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u666f\u6c23\u6ce2\u52d5\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u5faa\u74b0\u6703\u5f9e\u4e00\u5e74\u6301\u7e8c\u81f3\u5341\u5e74\u4e0d\u7b49\uff0c\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u5faa\u74b0\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u666f\u6c23\u64f4\u5f35\uff08\u7e41\u69ae\uff09\u548c\u6536\u7e2e\uff08\u51b7\u537b\uff09\u7684\u6642\u9593\u5340\u9593\u3002\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u53c3\u8003\u4e00\u4e0b\u9019\u5f35\u6709\u540d\u7684Wall St. Cheat Sheet\uff0c\u9019\u5f35\u5716\u76ee\u524d\u88ab\u5ee3\u6cdb\u5730\u7528\u65bc\u89e3\u91cb\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u666f\u6c23\u5faa\u74b0\u4e26\u8207\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u5e02\u5834\u505a\u9023\u7d50\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u4e5f\u5c07\u4f9d\u5faa\u6b64\u5716\u6240\u6d89\u53ca\u7684\u539f\u7406\u8108\u7d61\u4ecb\u7d39\u63a8\u52d5\u666f\u6c23\u5faa\u74b0\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/RDfP50CdWRcA1JvOozfbakUz1rjWjYFkEm0cLoUpMZbC66OAp75hB4UnhEWLS7mtuTxy9tONr_FDCIKU_Pc_u-ryNK3O5a0uTjWSEO5adsi6q2QoJrASg25d-xJR9t9qHGTccl1r\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6839\u64daWall St. Cheat Sheet\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u666f\u6c23\u5faa\u74b0\u7684\u6839\u672c\u662f\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\uff0f\u4ea4\u6613\u4eba\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u5fc3\u7406\u8b8a\u5316\u53ca\u60c5\u7dd2\u6ce2\u52d5\u4e4b\u4e0a\u3002\u8a31\u591a\u6709\u9032\u884c\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u8b80\u8005\u6216\u8a31\u5df2\u7d93\u5c0d\u300c\u7406\u6027\u4ea4\u6613\u300d\u9019\u500b\u8a5e\u5df2\u7136\u76f8\u7576\u719f\u6089\uff0c\u5e7e\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u65b9\u6cd5\u90fd\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u4ea4\u6613\u4eba\u7dad\u6301\u7406\u6027\u7684\u57fa\u790e\u4e0a\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u5df2\u7d93\u77e5\u9053\u7406\u6027\u7684\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u4f46\u60c5\u7dd2\u537b\u662f\u4eba\u5929\u751f\u5c31\u6709\u7684\u4e00\u9805\u7279\u8cea\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u6bcf\u4eba\u53d7\u5230\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u4e0d\u4e00\uff0c\u60c5\u7dd2\u4ecd\u7136\u78ba\u78ba\u5be6\u5be6\u5730\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u7576\u4e2d\u767c\u63ee\u5b83\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u2014\u2014\u7576\u7136\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u5f15\u9818\u5e02\u5834\u5faa\u74b0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u5716\u4e2d\u5c07\u4e00\u500b\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u5faa\u74b0\u5206\u51fa\u4e86\u7d04\u5341\u4e09\u500b\u968e\u6bb5\uff0c\u5728\u6bcf\u500b\u968e\u6bb5\u4e2d\uff0c\u7576\u5927\u591a\u6578\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u9762\u81e8\u5230\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u666f\u6c23\u72c0\u6cc1\u6642\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u60c5\u7dd2\u72c0\u6cc1\u4e5f\u6703\u96a8\u4e4b\u6539\u8b8a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h--2\">\u5e02\u5834\u5c07\u6703\u7d93\u6b77\u7684\u56db\u500b\u968e\u6bb5<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u5011\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u6309\u5716\u7d22\u9a65\uff0c\u78ba\u5207\u5730\u4e5f\u5c07\u5e02\u5834\u884c\u60c5\u7d30\u5206\u6210\u5341\u4e09\u500b\u5c0d\u61c9\u7684\u968e\u6bb5\uff0c\u5e7e\u672c\u4e0a\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u5927\u6982\u4e86\u89e3\u7576\u524d\u7684\u76f8\u5c0d\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff0c\u5c31\u80fd\u5c0d\u81ea\u5df1\u7406\u89e3\u5e02\u5834\u8da8\u52e2\u6709\u8db3\u5920\u7684\u5e6b\u52a9\u3002\u9019\u88e1\u6211\u5011\u5927\u81f4\u5c07\u5e02\u5834\u5206\u6210\u56db\u500b\u968e\u6bb5\u65b9\u4fbf\u8b80\u8005\u7406\u89e3\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/utthLw8vaqEM3Rbrm6IdMuJCvFIpfoh0pYZzlvNaJln2ZAae-w8JnH4pwH-NbkR_0i9xFAHYj7vY2zRajx2utZijQR6k8iOtujIUpjOVJ4SBRQVVv5VHFVwOHYY1XzW1nHGPLwz8\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ol><li><strong>\u7d2f\u7a4d\u671f (Accumulation Phase)<\/strong><\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5e02\u5834\u5df2\u7d93\u89f8\u5e95\uff0c\u6b64\u6642\u6703\u6709\u770b\u597d\u5e02\u5834\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e00\u4e9b\u9818\u5148\u7684\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u5165\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u90fd\u770b\u5230\u4e86\u7372\u5229\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u7684\u52d5\u6a5f\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4ee5\u64bf\u4fbf\u5b9c\u7684\u5fc3\u614b\u5165\u5834\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u8a8d\u70ba\u5e02\u5834\u5373\u5c07\u91cd\u65b0\u7e41\u69ae\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u9032\u5834\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"2\"><li><strong>\u4e0a\u5347\u671f (Mark-up Phase)<\/strong><\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u968e\u6bb5\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5df2\u7d93\u958b\u59cb\u7a69\u5b9a\u5730\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u65e9\u671f\u89c0\u671b\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u770b\u7a7a\u8005\u6216\u662f\u89c0\u671b\u8005\u6b63\u6e96\u5099\u9032\u5165\u5e02\u5834\u3001\u6ce8\u5165\u8cc7\u91d1\uff0c\u958b\u59cb\u5206\u914d\u8cc7\u91d1\u5728\u5e02\u5834\u4e2d\u7684\u7d44\u5408\uff1b\u4f46\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u65e9\u671f\u9032\u5165\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u6b63\u6e96\u5099\u5c07\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u6210\u679c\u514c\u73fe\u51fa\u5834\u3001\u7372\u5229\u4e86\u7d50\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"3\"><li><strong>\u5206\u92b7\u671f (Distribution Phase)<\/strong><\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u4e0a\u5347\u671f\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u91cf\u80fd\u9010\u6f38\u51fa\u73fe\u75b2\u5f31\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\uff0c\u50f9\u683c\u4e5f\u958b\u59cb\u660e\u986f\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002\u6b64\u6642\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u9010\u6f38\u51fa\u73fe\u4e86\u559c\u6182\u53c3\u534a\u7684\u5fc3\u614b\uff0c\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u591a\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u770b\u7a7a\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u65bc\u662f\u8f03\u591a\u7684\u8ce3\u55ae\u51fa\u73fe\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u6c7a\u5b9a\u8981\u514c\u73fe\u6295\u8cc7\u8cc7\u7522\uff0c\u96e2\u958b\u5e02\u5834\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"4\"><li><strong>\u4e0b\u8dcc\u671f (Mark-down Phase)<\/strong><\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6b64\u6642\u5e02\u5834\u5df2\u7d93\u78ba\u7acb\u4e86\u7a7a\u982d\uff0c\u50f9\u683c\u4e0d\u65b7\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u6b64\u6642\u6162\u4e86\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u5011\u6b63\u5728\u8a66\u5716\u633d\u6551\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\uff0c\u5c07\u80fd\u5920\u8ce3\u51fa\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u90fd\u51fa\u552e\uff1b\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u662f\u5728\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6700\u65e9\u671f\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u5011\u6b63\u864e\u8996\u7708\u7708\uff0c\u53c8\u958b\u59cb\u5c0b\u627e\u5e02\u5834\u9010\u6f38\u843d\u5e95\u3001\u6c89\u6fb1\u7684\u8de1\u8c61\uff0c\u4f3a\u6a5f\u9032\u5834\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ee5\u4e0a\u662f\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u5faa\u74b0\u5927\u7d04\u6703\u7d93\u6b77\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4ee5\u53ca\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u8b8a\u5316\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u90fd\u985e\u4f3c\u65bc\u4e00\u500b\u96f6\u548c\u904a\u6232\uff0c\u65e2\u7136\u6709\u4eba\u80fd\u5f9e\u4e2d\u725f\u5229\uff0c\u80af\u5b9a\u4e5f\u6709\u4eba\u5927\u5931\u8840\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u5faa\u74b0\u73fe\u8c61\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u5373\u5728\u65bc\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u80fd\u5920\u6e05\u695a\u5730\u8a2d\u60f3\u67d0\u4e9b\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u5df2\u9818\u5148\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u7684\u6642\u9593\u9032\u5165\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u53c8\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u6b63\u5728\u8e8d\u8e8d\u6b32\u8a66\u6642\u6084\u6084\u51fa\u5834\uff1b\u4e5f\u6709\u67d0\u4e9b\u843d\u5f8c\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\uff0c\u5728\u9032\u5834\u6642\u5df2\u7136\u6162\u4e86\u4e00\u6b65\uff0c\u66f4\u751a\u8005\u662f\u5728\u5e02\u5834\u8870\u5f31\u6642\u8df3\u9032\u97ed\u83dc\u5712\u88e1\u88ab\u760b\u72c2\u6536\u5272\u3002\u6295\u8cc7\u7121\u975e\u662f\u5834\u9810\u6e2c\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u8f03\u91cf\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u66f4\u6e96\u78ba\u5730\u638c\u63e1\u6642\u6a5f\uff0c\u6210\u70ba\u9818\u5148\u5927\u591a\u6578\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u7684\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\uff0c\u986f\u7136\u662f\u5404\u4f4d\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u7d9c\u5408\u4e86\u7d93\u9a57\u8840\u6dda\u90fd\u60f3\u5b78\u7fd2\u5230\u7684\u672c\u4e8b\uff0c\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u6211\u5011\u8981\u4ecb\u7d39\u7684\uff0c\u4fbf\u662f\u9019\u4e00\u80a1\u9818\u5148\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7fa4\u2014\u2014Smart Money\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-smart-money\">SMART MONEY<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"alignwide has-text-align-center wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"211\" height=\"255\" src=\"https:\/\/lh6.googleusercontent.com\/F5esth2E69fgD9_3irykuKYiE5nhp8DRaFDofcu3ad-FZxp4WYemks1JSIOTmATZpap1RmXP44ulnms2LZ32r37XrW5twk1bhL2e3lfMPrG-LkFz-SYZG4CtDRNugsQyGuoxIkzN\"><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>\u60f3\u50cf\u73fe\u5728\u4f60\u6b63\u9762\u81e8\u4e00\u500b\u731c\u786c\u5e63\u6b63\u53cd\u7684\u5c0f\u904a\u6232\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e14\u5728\u9019\u500b\u904a\u6232\u4e2d\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u78ba\u5b9a\u7684\u9435\u5f8b\uff1a\u786c\u5e63\u7684\u6b63\u53cd\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u53d7\u4eba\u70ba\u63a7\u5236\u3002\u4f46\u5728\u904a\u6232\u958b\u59cb\u5f8c\u5c0d\u65b9\u64f2\u51fa\u7684\u786c\u5e63\u9023\u7e8c\u51fa\u73fe\u4e86\u4e03\u6b21\u6b63\u9762\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u4f60\u662f\u5426\u6703\u8a8d\u70ba\u7b2c\u516b\u6b21\u51fa\u73fe\u786c\u5e63\u6b63\u9762\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u6bd4\u8f03\u9ad8\u5462\uff1f\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u771f\u7684\u9019\u9ebc\u60f3\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u958b\u59cb\u61f7\u7591\u8d77\u904a\u6232\u7684\u9435\u5f8b\u4f86\uff08\u96d6\u7136\u662f\u4eba\u4e4b\u5e38\u60c5\uff09\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u5df2\u7d93\u6210\u70ba\u4e86\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u7b28\u9322\uff08Dumb money\uff09\u7684\u4e00\u54e1\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5982\u679c\u89ba\u5f97\u96b1\u7d04\u6293\u4f4f\u4e86\u9019\u500b\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u53c8\u6c92\u6709\u5b8c\u5168\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5c07\u9019\u5957\u601d\u8003\u65b9\u5f0f\u5957\u7528\u9032\u5e02\u5834\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\uff1a<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>\u7576\u5e02\u5834\u8f03\u70ba\u5e73\u7de9\uff0c\u4f60\u5c0d\u591a\u7a7a\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u4e5f\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\u3002<\/li><li>\u7576\u5e02\u5834\u50f9\u683c\u958b\u59cb\u4e0a\u63da\uff0c\u4f60\u610f\u8b58\u5230\u76ee\u524d\u662f\u591a\u982d\u5e02\u5834\u3002<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7576\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u88ab\u7576\u524d\u5e02\u5834\u8da8\u52e2\u5f71\u97ff\u6c7a\u7b56\u6642\uff0c\u4fbf\u6703\u6709\u76f8\u7576\u5927\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u9020\u6210\u7b28\u9322\u6548\u61c9\uff08Dumb money effect\uff09\uff0c\u6210\u70ba\u788c\u788c\u8cc7\u91d1\u7684\u4e00\u54e1\uff0c\u88ab\u8da8\u52e2\u8f49\u6298\u62cd\u6253\u5f97\u6688\u982d\u8f49\u5411\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u6b63\u662f\u63a8\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u5faa\u74b0\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u5118\u7ba1\u672c\u6587\u91cd\u9ede\u4e26\u975e\u8981\u6559\u5c0e\u5404\u4f4d\u8b80\u8005\u5982\u4f55\u6210\u70ba\u4e00\u4f4d\u5091\u51fa\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u5728\u6b64\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u500b\u5927\u7565\u4f46\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff1aSmart Money<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Smart Money\u4e00\u8a5e\u4e00\u822c\u7528\u65bc\u5f62\u5bb9\u884c\u5bb6\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u6216\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u9818\u5148\u5927\u591a\u5e02\u5834\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u6c7a\u7b56\u3002\u6211\u5011\u6216\u8a31\u53ef\u4ee5\u53c3\u8003Federik Vanhaaverbeke\u7684\u540d\u8457\uff1c\u8d85\u984d\u5831\u916c\uff1e\uff08Excess Returns\uff09\u4e2d\uff0c\u5c0d\u667a\u6167\u578b\u80a1\u7968\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u63cf\u8ff0\u3002\u4ed6\u5c0d\u65bc\u6b64\u985e\u667a\u6167\u578b\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u7684\u7279\u9ede\u770b\u6cd5\u8457\u91cd\u65bc\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5e7e\u9ede\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>\u7368\u7279\u4e14\u8b39\u614e\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7b56\u7565\uff08\u5c08\u696d\u5ea6\uff09<\/li><li>\u5c0d\u6297\u7fa4\u773e\u7684\u52c7\u6c23\uff08\u7368\u7acb\u53ca\u60c5\u7dd2\u62bd\u96e2\uff09<\/li><li>\u5c0d\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u71b1\u60c5\u53ca\u8b19\u5351<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>\u95dc\u65bcFederik\u5c0d\u65bc\u667a\u6167\u578b\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u6709\u5e7e\u9ede\u662f\u9700\u8981\u8b80\u8005\u5728\u610f\u7684\uff0c\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u7279\u9ede\uff08\u6216\u8aaa\u662f\u5efa\u8b70\uff09\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u662f\u91dd\u5c0d\u500b\u9ad4\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\uff0c\u800cSmart Money \u6240\u6307\u6d89\u7684\u4e0d\u55ae\u53ea\u6709\u5091\u51fa\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\uff0c\u4e5f\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u8a31\u591a\u6a5f\u69cb\u6216\u662f\u8a08\u756b\u6240\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\u53ca\u8cc7\u91d1\u6295\u5165\u3002\u518d\u8005\uff0c\u95dc\u65bc\u5c0d\u6297\u7fa4\u773e\u7684\u52c7\u6c23\u7279\u9ede\uff0c\u6211\u60f3\u61c9\u8a72\u9032\u884c\u4e00\u4e9b\u5ef6\u4f38\u95e1\u91cb\u6703\u66f4\u52a0\u6070\u7576\uff0c\u6240\u8b02\u52c7\u6c23\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u7576\u7136\u4e0d\u55ae\u55ae\u53ea\u9760\u52c7\u6c23\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8981\u6c42\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u9075\u5faa\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5c08\u696d\u548c\u7d00\u5f8b\u9032\u884c\u64cd\u4f5c\uff1b\u771f\u6b63\u56f0\u96e3\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u662f\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u8a72\u5982\u4f55\u8fa8\u8b58\u51fa\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5206\u6790\u9810\u6e2c\u662f\u932f\u8aa4\uff1f\u9019\u624d\u662f\u6210\u70baSmart Money\u6240\u9700\u514b\u670d\u7684\u60c5\u7dd2\u8ab2\u984c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h--3\">\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u5e02\u5834\u5faa\u74b0<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh5.googleusercontent.com\/YRSNKAobURd-GRlCtcX2SNwOja9coRD-bgEaU-kygZvXjs5sczRgA0ldOZEPnzYT3_mRTkeqlRgbC9ilHcN9S2WpyDIvbEMEwrvlMhe_VjsI45Mb1Hsnvue6jCPeKXHez6Jhm3n8\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u4ecb\u7d39\u5b8c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u5faa\u74b0\u80cc\u5f8c\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u958b\u59cb\u4f86\u4e86\u89e3\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u5faa\u74b0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u524d\u6587\u63d0\u53ca\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u7684\u5faa\u74b0\u5927\u7d04\u662f\u5341\u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\u7684\u9577\u5ea6\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u4e0a\u5716\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u767c\u73fe\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u7684\u5faa\u74b0\u7d04\u70ba\u56db\u5e74\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u53ef\u898b\u7684\u5faa\u74b0\u5305\u542b2013\u5e74\u30012017\u5e74\u4ee5\u53ca2021\u5e74\u7684\u4e09\u500b\u5faa\u74b0\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u7684\u751f\u7522\u91cf\u80fd\uff08\u4f9b\u61c9\uff09\u6bcf\u56db\u5e74\u6703\u6e1b\u534a\uff0c\u4e0b\u5716\u5373\u662f\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u6d41\u91cf\u5c0d\u6642\u9593\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\u5716\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u898b\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u786b\u91cf\u7684\u6210\u9577\u5c07\u6703\u9010\u6f38\u8da8\u7de9\uff0c\u4e26\u9810\u4f30\u5728\u5927\u7d042040\u5e74\u6316\u51fa\u6240\u6709\u7684\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\uff0c\u5c46\u6642\u6210\u9577\u7387\u5c07\u6b78\u96f6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/bpS2j9Vwy9prwkwcFz_xSr6u8P4LNV3UpJDZzHDjMyMhxMzyQy6mGw1HRq0RC1-We0HJCgtjzJFHL9AsJhnxk4o5UNK5nbqZRq5i2D3LSVshE290CDogUKdPJAGSwXSc28d1k-n4\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u751f\u7522\u6e1b\u534a\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>2009\u5e74\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u6316\u7926\u7684\u734e\u52f5\u662f50BTC<\/li><li>2012\u5e7411\u6708 \u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u6316\u7926\u734e\u52f5\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u6e1b\u534a\u70ba 25BTC<\/li><li>2016\u5e747\u6708 &nbsp; \u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u6316\u7926\u734e\u52f5\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u6e1b\u534a\u70ba 12.5BTC<\/li><li>2020\u5e745\u6708 &nbsp; \u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u6316\u7926\u734e\u52f5\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b21\u6e1b\u534a\u70ba 6.25BTC<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/tyIxZ1Mc_Zuivo9dSAOAp95J4qqtDSXiEcd4DOpGHDH7S1VEh82DhnZAVm3zZxcmy3NR8kKv5nnjgF3RtvF-n2eFMQtO-OmdYJ5LZ8cjZaWHjjeJ4-OeKwXNM1kDvpqDOJPDI9Bm\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u7531\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u6b77\u53f2\u50f9\u683c\u53ef\u898b\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u751f\u7522\u6e1b\u534a\u524d\u5f8c\u90fd\u6703\u8fce\u4f86\u6f32\u52e2\uff0c\u4f46\u63d0\u9192\u8b80\u8005\u5c07\u9019\u7a2e\u50f9\u683c\u8b8a\u5316\u95dc\u4fc2\u8996\u70ba\u78ba\u5b9a\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\u4e26\u4e0d\u7cbe\u6e96\uff0c\u7562\u7adf\u53ef\u89c0\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u6b21\u6578\u53ef\u8aaa\u662f\u76f8\u7576\u6709\u9650\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-s2f-stock-to-flow-model\">\u751a\u9ebc\u662f S2F \uff08Stock-to-flow\uff09MODEL<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ecb\u7d39\u5b8c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u751f\u7522\u7684\u6e1b\u534a\u9031\u671f\u5f8c\uff0c\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u8981\u4ecb\u7d39\u4e00\u500b\u7531\u63a8\u7279\u5e63\u5708\u8457\u540d\u5206\u6790\u5e2bPlanB\u6240\u63d0\u51fa\u7684S2F\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u9019\u500b\u6a21\u578b\u80cc\u5f8c\u7684\u610f\u6db5\u662f\uff1a\u96a8\u8457\u6642\u9593\u63a8\u79fb\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u7684\u4f9b\u7d66\u4e5f\u6703\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u5c11\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u518d\u9010\u6f38\u6210\u9577\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5c07\u6703\u9020\u6210\u5f37\u70c8\u7684\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\uff0c\u63a8\u52d5\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u4e0d\u65b7\u6500\u5347\uff1b\u800cS2F\u7684\u610f\u601d\u5176\u5be6\u5c31\u662f&nbsp; 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