{"id":1871,"date":"2021-12-28T19:10:42","date_gmt":"2021-12-28T11:10:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bshare.io\/?p=1871"},"modified":"2022-08-16T14:18:17","modified_gmt":"2022-08-16T06:18:17","slug":"%e6%af%94%e7%89%b9%e5%b9%a3%e6%98%af%e4%b8%80%e5%80%8b%e5%a5%bd%e7%9a%84%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e6%a9%9f%e6%9c%83%e5%97%8e%ef%bc%9f%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e6%af%94%e7%89%b9%e5%b9%a3%e6%9c%89%e4%bb%80%e9%ba%bc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bshare.io\/en\/trend\/btc_emh\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u597d\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u6a5f\u6703\u55ce\uff1f\u6295\u8cc7\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u98a8\u96aa\uff1f\u5f9e S2F \u6a21\u578b\u3001Plan B \u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u600e\u9ebc\u770b\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>\u9084\u8a18\u5f97\u6211\u5011\u5728<a href=\"https:\/\/bshare.io\/en\/trend\/btc_bull_s2f\/\">\u9019\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0<\/a>\u4e2d\u66fe\u7d93\u5411\u5927\u5bb6\u4ecb\u7d39\u904ePlanB\u7684S2F\u6a21\u578b\u8207\u5b83\u7684\u6539\u826f\u7248S2FX\u3002\u9019\u5169\u500b\u6a21\u578b\u5e38\u5e38\u88ab\u8a8d\u70ba\u8207\u91d1\u878d\u5b78\u754c\u57281970\u5e74\u4ee3\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u300c\u6548\u7387\u5e02\u5834\u5047\u8aaa\u300d\uff08Efficient market hypothesis, EMH\uff09\u76f8\u9055\u80cc\u3002\u4f9d\u7167EMH\uff0c\u5929\u4e0b\u6c92\u6709\u767d\u5403\u7684\u5348\u9910\uff0c\u5982\u679cS2F\u6a21\u578b\u771f\u7684\u90a3\u9ebc\u53b2\u5bb3\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u61c9\u8a72\u65e9\u5df2\u53cd\u6620\u5b83\u7684\u7a00\u6709\u6027\u624d\u5c0d\uff0c\u900f\u904eS2F\u6a21\u578b\u6839\u672c\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u7372\u5229\u3002<\/p><p><strong>\u672c\u6587\u6211\u5011\u5c07\u4f7f\u7528\u50b3\u7d71\u4e0a\u7528\u4f86\u8861\u91cf\u91d1\u878d\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u7528\u5728\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e26\u8207S2F\u9032\u884c\u6bd4\u8f03\u3002<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-emh\">\u6548\u7387\u5e02\u5834\u5047\u8aaa\uff08EMH\uff09<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8981\u4e86\u89e3\u70ba\u4f55S2F\u6a21\u578b\u548cEMH\u662f\u4e92\u76f8\u7274\u89f8\u7684\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u6211\u5011\u5fc5\u9808\u4e86\u89e3\u4ec0\u9ebc\u662fEMH\u3002\u6b63\u5f0f\u5b9a\u7fa9\u4e0a\u7684\u6548\u7387\u5e02\u5834\u6709\u4e09\u7a2e\uff0c\u800c\u76ee\u524d\u6700\u88ab\u5ee3\u70ba\u63a5\u53d7\u7684\u662f\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7a2e\uff1a<strong>\u534a\u5f37\u5f0f\u6548\u7387\u5e02\u5834\uff08semi-strong efficient market\uff09\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u534a\u5f37\u5f0f\u6548\u7387\u5e02\u5834\u4e2d\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u516c\u958b\u7684\u8cc7\u8a0a\u90fd\u5df2\u7d93\u5145\u5206\u53cd\u6620\u5728\u50f9\u683c\u5167\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u5c07\u7121\u6cd5\u900f\u904e\u6280\u8853\u5206\u6790\u548c\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u5206\u6790\u9054\u6210\u7121\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u7372\u5229\u3002\u63db\u53e5\u8a71\u8aaa\uff0c\u5047\u8a2d\u6211\u5011\u73fe\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u662f\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u9664\u4e86\u4f9d\u64da\u5167\u7dda\u6d88\u606f\u4f86\u4ea4\u6613\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u4e0a\u6c92\u6709\u80fd\u5920\u7121\u98a8\u96aa\u7372\u5229\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u3002<strong>\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u4e00\u500b\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u7279\u9ede\u5c31\u662f\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u8cc7\u8a0a\u90fd\u662f\u5411\u5927\u773e\u516c\u958b\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u96a8\u610f\u5b58\u53d6\u7684\uff0c\u5b83\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u5167\u7dda\u6d88\u606f<\/strong>\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u82e5\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u5e02\u5834\u771f\u7684\u662f\u534a\u5f37\u5f0f\u6548\u7387\u7684\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u4e0a\u5c07\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u4efb\u4f55\u53ef\u80fd\u7121\u98a8\u96aa\u7372\u5229\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u6211\u5011\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u8aaa\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u5728\u6548\u7387\u5e02\u5834\u4e0d\u80fd\u7372\u5229\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u5fc5\u9808\u627f\u64d4\u98a8\u96aa\u4f86\u5f97\u5230\u5831\u916c\u3002\u9019\u5c31\u4f86\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u91d1\u878d\u696d\u754c\u5f88\u559c\u6b61\u8aaa\u7684\u4e00\u53e5\u8a71\uff1a\u300c\u9ad8\u98a8\u96aa\u9ad8\u5831\u916c\u300d\u3002\u7576\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u9858\u610f\u627f\u64d4\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u80fd\u9810\u671f\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u5831\u916c\u4e5f\u5c31\u8d8a\u9ad8\u3002\u8209\u5169\u500b\u5178\u578b\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff1a\u7f8e\u570b\u516c\u50b5\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u975e\u5e38\u4f4e\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u5831\u916c\uff08\u6b96\u5229\u7387\uff09\u4e5f\u4f4e\uff1b\u76f8\u53cd\u5730\uff0c\u516c\u53f8\u50b5\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u4e00\u5b9a\u6bd4\u516c\u50b5\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e5f\u56e0\u6b64\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u5831\u916c\uff08\u6b96\u5229\u7387\uff09\u4e5f\u5c31\u8f03\u9ad8\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8aaa\u4eca\u5929\u516c\u53f8\u50b5\u7684\u5831\u916c\u6bd4\u516c\u50b5\u4f4e\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u4e0d\u6703\u6709\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u8cb7\u516c\u53f8\u50b5\u4e86\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u6211\u80fd\u5728\u627f\u64d4\u66f4\u5c0f\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u4e0b\u8cfa\u53d6\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5831\u916c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5be6\u52d9\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5e38\u5e38\u5047\u8a2d\u534a\u5f37\u5f0f\u6548\u7387\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u4f7f\u7528\u4e0b\u9762\u4ecb\u7d39\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u5831\u916c\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h--1\">\u98a8\u96aa\u8207\u5831\u916c<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6839\u64da\u6211\u5011\u7684\u5047\u8a2d\uff0c\u5831\u916c\u548c\u98a8\u96aa\u61c9\u8a72\u662f\u8981\u6709\u5c0d\u50f9\u95dc\u4fc2\u7684\u3002\u5728\u540c\u4e00\u500b\u98a8\u96aa\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0b\uff0c\u82e5\u540c\u6642\u5b58\u5728\u5169\u500b\u5831\u916c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\uff0c\u7406\u6027\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u90fd\u6703\u9078\u64c7\u5831\u916c\u8f03\u9ad8\u7684\u90a3\u500b\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u6703\u628a\u5831\u916c\u8f03\u4f4e\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u6dd8\u6c70\u800c\u56de\u5230\u5747\u8861\uff1b\u540c\u7406\uff0c\u5728\u540c\u4e00\u500b\u5831\u916c\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0b\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u90fd\u6703\u9078\u64c7\u98a8\u96aa\u4f4e\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u4e26\u5c07\u98a8\u96aa\u9ad8\u7684\u6dd8\u6c70\u3002\u4ee5\u6700\u5927\u5e74\u640d\u5931\u8861\u91cf\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u4e26\u4ee5\u5e73\u5747\u5e74\u5831\u916c\u7387\u4f5c\u70ba\u5831\u916c\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u4e0b\u5716\u63cf\u7e6a\u4e86\u7f8e\u570b\u5341\u5e74\u671f\u516c\u50b5\u3001\u9ec3\u91d1\u3001S&amp;P 500\u6307\u6578\u8207\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u5c0d\u50f9\u95dc\u4fc2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/D0shZ_E61pUBfeBmQek3mVqb5CnmWITvbbtWcBOy5ba8ick03GFlH6SwWj2hyxw-TjgEkTyjrbxqT-38LaPtLlEgfEQDyb34LpS4iLYepayAOImhWvRcvreupZCnTauOpkkBP_4p\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e0a\u5716\u6a6b\u8ef8\u4ee3\u8868\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u7e31\u8ef8\u4ee3\u8868\u5831\u916c\u3002\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u7f8e\u570b\u516c\u50b5\u3001\u9ec3\u91d1\u548cS&amp;P 500\u5728\u5716\u4e0a\u69cb\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u689d\u7dda\u3002\u90a3\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u5728\u54ea\u88e1\u5462\uff1f\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u5df2\u7d93\u8d85\u51fa\u9019\u5f35\u5716\u7684\u7bc4\u570d\u5916\u4e86\uff0c\u5b83\u57282009\u5e74\u52302019\u5e74\u4e4b\u9593\u6709200%\u7684\u5831\u916c\u820780%\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u5728\u5716\u4e0a\u70ba\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u6a19\u8a3b\u7684\u9ede\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\u662f1%\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u914d\u4e0a99%\u73fe\u91d1\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u5c31\u7b97\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u50f9\u503c\u6b78\u96f6\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u9084\u662f\u53ea\u6709\u627f\u53d71%\u7684\u640d\u5931\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4f30\u8a08\u9019\u500b\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u6700\u5927\u53ef\u80fd\u640d\u5931\u662f1%\uff08\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5f88\u4fdd\u5b88\u7684\u4f30\u8a08\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u7684\u50f9\u503c\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u6b78\u96f6\uff09\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5b83\u4ecd\u820a\u67098%\u7684\u5e74\u5831\u916c\u3002\u5728\u9019\u5f35\u5716\u4e0a\u6108\u5de6\u4e0a\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u6108\u8a98\u4eba\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4ed6\u5011\u98a8\u96aa\u66f4\u4f4e\uff0c\u5831\u916c\u66f4\u591a\u30021%\u6bd4\u7279\u5e6399%\u73fe\u91d1\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u5728\u6240\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u5de6\u4e0a\u65b9\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u53ef\u4ee5\u627f\u64d4\u66f4\u5c11\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u8d0f\u5f97\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u5831\u916c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f46\u4e8b\u5be6\u771f\u7684\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u55ce\uff1f\u4f9d\u64daEMH\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u5831\u916c\u90fd\u80fd\u88ab\u98a8\u96aa\u89e3\u91cb\uff0c\u65bc\u662f\u9019\u5c31\u8a95\u751f\u4e86\u5169\u7a2e\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff1a\u4e00\u662f\u5728\u4e0a\u5716\u4e2d\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u9084\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u98a8\u96aa\u6c92\u88ab\u8861\u91cf\u5230\uff0c\u4e8c\u662f\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u8207\u5831\u916c\u76ee\u524d\u6c92\u6709\u5408\u7406\u7684\u5c0d\u50f9\u95dc\u4fc2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 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B \u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-\u5e63\u5b78-\uff5c-bshare-io wp-block-embed-\u5e63\u5b78-\uff5c-bshare-io\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"PbNpvnRytV\"><a href=\"https:\/\/bshare.io\/en\/trend\/btc_bull_s2f\/\">\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u725b\u5e02\u771f\u7684\u53ef\u4ee5\u5230 10 \u842c\u7f8e\uff1f\u5f9e PlanB \u7684 S2F\/S2FX(Stock-to-flow) \u6a21\u578b\u4f86\u770b\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u725b\u5e02\u7684\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\uff01<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u725b\u5e02\u771f\u7684\u53ef\u4ee5\u5230 10 \u842c\u7f8e\uff1f\u5f9e PlanB \u7684 S2F\/S2FX(Stock-to-flow) \u6a21\u578b\u4f86\u770b\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u725b\u5e02\u7684\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\uff01 &#8212; \u5e63\u5b78 \uff5c BShare.io\" src=\"https:\/\/bshare.io\/trend\/btc_bull_s2f\/embed\/#?secret=v3DM9jpqUh#?secret=PbNpvnRytV\" data-secret=\"PbNpvnRytV\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-reference\">Reference<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>PlanB\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/@100trillionUSD\/efficient-market-hypothesis-and-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model-db17f40e6107\">https:\/\/medium.com\/@100trillionUSD\/efficient-market-hypothesis-and-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model-db17f40e6107<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5982\u4f55\u8861\u91cf\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u597d\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u6a5f\u6703\u55ce\uff1f\u73fe\u5728\u662f\u4f4e\u4f30\u9084\u662f\u9ad8\u4f30\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u7684\u50f9\u503c\u5462\uff1f\u6295\u8cc7\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u6709\u54ea\u4e9b\uff1f\u6211\u5011\u5f9e\u50b3\u7d71\u91d1\u878d\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u4f86\u9032\u884c\u5206\u6790<\/p>","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":3457,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":null,"stick-header-meta":"default","header-above-stick-meta":null,"header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":null},"categories":[33],"tags":[105,104,53],"yoast_head":"<!-- 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